November 2023
Market Overview
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Throughout October and into early November inventory was running at 2023 Summer highs (170+ homes and 35+ condos), which is unsual for this time of year. Typically, Fall inventory is 20% below Summer levels. Inventory is still quite low historically, but it is 10% higher than this same time last year.
Interest rates broke through the 8% threshold in October but have drifted back into the low 7's of late. I spoke with a lender today that said he had 30 yr. fixed rates back in the 6's. That is good news.
October gave us another month of below 100 sales - monthly sales for seven of the last ten months are below 100. 2023 is proving to be one of the lowest total annual sales in recent memory. We are going to finish below the 2008 level of 1348 total sales.
The absence of inventory is impacting the number of sales and is also helping to keep prices at their newfound levels.
Interesting to note, what we don't have enough of is single family homes priced under $1.5M. Under $1.5M is our entry level market now. In any given week there are only 5 - 10 homes available in this price range. A recent new listing priced at $1.175 received 16 offers and is pending well over the list price.
Demand is sustaining price.
The median home sale price YTD is $2,100,000.
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Pricing Matters...
It continues to be a Seller's Market.
Inventory is light, and demand remains strong, but a property can be overpriced. Overpriced properties are taking longer to sell, but they are selling often only after one or more price adjustments. It's not uncommon to see several $100K price reductions on a property this year.
Priced strategically, a seller can still anticipate multiple offers, but aggressively overpricing can create a lot of seller consternation.
*A home on the backside of the Mesa was listed this Spring at $4.695M - it felt very aggressive. It closed today after several price adjustments at $3.995M.
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Total Sales: 90 -8%
Median Sales Price House: $2,110,000 +4%
Median Sales Price Condo: $902,500 -10%
Median Days On Market: 11
Average Sold to List Price Ratio: 97%
Sales over $8M: 6
Inventory Supply: 2.5 months
*October sales are down 42% from 2019.
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Lowest Level Since 2010
Existing-home sales, which make up most of the housing market, decreased 4.1% in October from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million, the lowest rate since August 2010, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. October sales fell 14.6% from a year earlier. Sales have been near 2010 levels in recent months.
- Wall St. Journal
11/22/2023
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Montecito sales seem to be moderating perhaps the most of any singular market segment. Properties are taking longer to sell, and most properties are not getting their list price. The rush to get here at any cost during the pandemic has abated. There are thoughtful buyers still looking in and for Montecito, but the property has to be "right."
Ironically, 670 Hot Springs Road has been on the market since January 2022 - initially listed at $74M. It's still available and now priced at $59.9M.
There are currently 42 homes on the market in the 93108 from $2.0M - $60M with a Median List Price of $7,995,000 and Median Days on Market of 79.
Padaro Lane is not part of Montecito or the 93108, but it is part of our luxury market. It's technically Carpinteria. Padaro has had two sales this year, and currently has six active listings. Incidentally, the two sales were both executed off-market.
Montecito Sales - October
Median Sales Price: $6,300,000
Median Days on Market: 56
Average Sold Price to List Price: 91%
Off Market Sales: 0
All Cash: 10
*The highest sale of the year was 3165 Padaro Lane at $46,892,249.
It was on the market last year, initially at $65M and lastly at $55M.
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Santa Barbara is beautiful! People want to live here!
Two things hold true in today's market.
1) It's a great time to sell if you have a plan for what's next.
2) If you need a home, and you can afford it, it's OK to buy now.
You gotta live somewhere, why not here!
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Are you thinking about selling?
Want to make some improvements
before you sell?
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© Compass 2023 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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